Still openGlobal · the five largest big-tech companies, as described in the source · 2025–2026 spending plans · reviewed 13 September 2026
AI: no ending written yet
The next rack is still on paper.
The racks need paying for before anyone knows what they'll earn. A company can use its cash or borrow, including through private credit. Either way, the equipment arrives before the answer.
The BIS research asks whether earnings can sustain the build-out. Its September 10, 2026 speech describes anticipated AI-related capital expenditure by the five largest big-tech companies across 2025 and 2026.
That spending plan isn't an account of OpenAI's or Anthropic's current debt, and it doesn't say how the boom ends.
- Anticipated AI-related capital expenditure, five largest big-tech companies
- more than $1 trillion
- across 2025 and 2026 · BIS speech, 10 September 2026 · partly forecast
Spent, borrowed, or valued?
Capital expenditure is spending on assets over a period. The figure on this card is a two-year plan, part of it still ahead.
Debt is an obligation outstanding on a date. Different measure, different shape, different question.
An equity valuation is an assessment of what ownership is worth. It is neither money owed nor money spent.
This entry is unresolved and stays unresolved. The spending figure is an attributed, forward-looking two-year plan stated in a speech dated 10 September 2026; it is not an outstanding debt balance, not a valuation, and not a claim that the money has already been spent. The separate January 2026 bulletin's risk assessment is dated to January and is not an updated September measurement or a guarantee of any outcome. No crash is predicted here, and neither is a payoff. Reviewed 13 September 2026.
Sources
- Artificial intelligence, growth and financial stability: challenges for central banks — Pablo Hernández de Cos, Bank for International Settlements (speech). The opening investment discussion in the AI and global-economy section, describing the five largest big-tech companies as set to spend more than $1 trillion on AI-related capital expenditure across 2025 and 2026. Supports an attributed forward-looking spending statement, not audited debt balances. Recheck before release; this edition retains the speech's own date.
- Financing the AI boom: from cash flows to debt (BIS Bulletin 120) — Iñaki Aldasoro, Sebastian Doerr and Daniel Rees, Bank for International Settlements. Online key takeaways covering anticipated financing needs, private credit, earnings expectations and the dated risk assessment. Supports the conceptual distinction between spending, borrowing and valuation. Its January assessment is not an updated September measurement and is not a guarantee.
These historical figures stay separate from the running debt comparison. Source review recorded: 2026-09-13.